Chile · Critical Minerals · October 2026

Chile's Penco Rare Earth Project Moves Closer to Production

Aclara's updated economic assessment values the Penco Module at US$344 million and estimates initial construction investment at US$244 million. Environmental approval, financing and downstream processing in the United States will determine whether Chile can turn the project into commercial production.

By Marcus A. Volz · October 22, 2026 · Econosur

Rare earth development in Chile and its emerging international industrial value chain Econosur · Critical Minerals
Chile's emerging rare earth industry connects mineral extraction with international processing and industrial markets. Image: Econosur.
Quick answer

Chile's Penco rare earth project has advanced toward construction, but commercial production remains conditional. Aclara Resources published an updated Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) on October 19, 2026, estimating US$244 million in initial construction capital, an after-tax net present value of US$344 million at an 8% discount rate and a 17-year mine life.

The project received first-stage environmental approval in June 2026. Aclara now targets completion of its feasibility study in the first quarter of 2027 and construction completion in the second half of 2028, subject to financing and other conditions. Administrative challenges remain under review, and the full 17-year production plan requires a second environmental assessment.

Penco's economic significance extends beyond the Chilean mine. Aclara intends to connect its production of mixed rare earth carbonate with a planned separation facility in Louisiana and metals and alloys technology being developed jointly with Chilean industrial group CAP. None of these planned commercial operations should yet be treated as completed capacity.

Scope of this analysis

Location: Penco, Biobío Region, Chile. Project: Penco Module, developed by Aclara Resources with Grupo CAP. Research period: information published through October 22, 2026.

This analysis distinguishes mineral resources, preliminary economic projections, granted environmental approvals, outstanding permits, financing proposals and industrial facilities at different development stages. Monetary values are in US dollars unless stated otherwise.

US$244m
Estimated initial construction capital
US$344m
After-tax NPV at 8%
26.1%
Projected after-tax IRR
17 years
Modelled mine life

Source: Aclara Resources, updated Penco Module Preliminary Economic Assessment, October 19, 2026. NPV is net present value; IRR is internal rate of return. These figures are estimates, not realised financial results.

The Penco Module: Chile's Heavy Rare Earth Project

The Penco Module is an ion-adsorption clay rare earth development in Chile's Biobío Region, approximately 430 kilometres south of Santiago. The project is controlled by Aclara Resources and developed in partnership with Grupo CAP, one of Chile's established mining and industrial companies.

Unlike Chile's major copper deposits or its lithium operations in northern salt flats, Penco targets rare earth elements contained in clay deposits. The planned extraction and processing system is designed to produce a mixed rare earth carbonate, referred to by Aclara as Super Pure Rare Earth Carbonate (SPREC).

Penco is particularly relevant because its expected output includes dysprosium and terbium. These elements are used in specialised high-performance permanent magnets, including applications requiring resistance to elevated temperatures. Their commercial importance is connected not only to mineral availability but also to the specialised processing required to obtain separated oxides, metals and alloys.

This adds another dimension to South America's critical minerals development . Chile already occupies an important position in copper and lithium. A commercially successful Penco operation would introduce a different industrial segment with its own processing technology, customer requirements and international investment relationships.

Updated Economics: US$244 Million in Initial Capital

Aclara's October 19 assessment uses a revised operating plan based on 30.8 million tonnes of mineral resources to be processed over 17 years. The study estimates average annual production of 732 tonnes of rare earth oxides contained in SPREC, excluding the initial ramp-up and final ramp-down years.

The output is a mixture of rare earth materials, not 732 tonnes of separated finished oxides available directly to industrial customers. Subsequent processing is an essential part of Aclara's proposed commercial model.

Rare earth element Average annual content Economic relevance
Dysprosium (Dy) 44 tonnes High-performance permanent magnets
Terbium (Tb) 6 tonnes Specialised magnet applications
Yttrium (Y) 400 tonnes Advanced ceramics, electronics and other materials
Gadolinium (Gd) 31 tonnes Specialised industrial and technological uses
Samarium (Sm) 19 tonnes High-temperature magnets and specialised applications
Neodymium and Praseodymium (NdPr) 128 tonnes Permanent magnet manufacturing

Source: Aclara Resources, October 2026 PEA. Quantities represent rare earth oxide content in mixed carbonate, not separate commercial oxide production or confirmed sales.

The updated study reports after-tax NPV of US$344 million, after-tax IRR of 26.1% and an estimated payback period of 3.2 years. Initial construction capital comprises approximately US$204.4 million in estimated expenditure plus US$39.1 million in contingency, totalling US$243.5 million and rounded to US$244 million.

Operating costs are estimated at US$28.9 per tonne of mineral resources processed. Aclara also includes annual average separation, commercial discount and transport costs of approximately US$72 million in its economic model. These costs reflect additional processing and commercial requirements beyond the Chilean mining operation.

What the valuation does and does not include

The US$344 million NPV belongs to the Penco economic model. It incorporates allowances for separation and transport, but does not include the standalone economic value of the proposed Louisiana processing facility.

The figure is also sensitive to rare earth prices. Using a different scenario based on uncapped Argus Media price forecasts, Aclara calculates an after-tax NPV of approximately US$1.1 billion. This is an alternative modelled outcome, not a secured project valuation or realised commercial return.

What Changed Since the 2021 Assessment?

The 2026 update reflects a larger production plan, revised processing technology and higher estimated investment requirements. It also incorporates a different market outlook for the rare earth elements expected from Penco.

Indicator 2021 PEA 2026 PEA
Mine life 14 years 17 years
Mineral resources processed 19.9 million tonnes 30.8 million tonnes
Initial construction capital Approximately US$129m Approximately US$244m
After-tax NPV US$178m at 5% US$344m at 8%
After-tax IRR 23% 26.1%
Modelled payback 4.7 years 3.2 years
Operating cost per tonne processed US$13.6 US$28.9

Source: Aclara Resources, updated PEA of October 19, 2026, including comparisons with the September 2021 study. Both NPV calculations use different discount rates and assumptions and therefore are not directly comparable measures of value creation.

The initial capital requirement has increased by approximately US$115 million. Aclara attributes the increase to changes in the processing flowsheet, more developed engineering, environmental measures and general cost escalation.

The economic implications are mixed. The mine plan uses more mineral resources and projects a longer operating life, while higher capital and processing costs increase the amount of investment required before the project can become commercially productive. The improved IRR and payback estimates also depend on the assumptions embedded in the updated model.

Financing and CAP's Investment Position

Penco's ownership structure connects Canadian-listed Aclara Resources with Chilean industrial group CAP. Aclara's October 2026 announcement identifies CAP as holding 20% in REE Uno SpA, the entity owning the Penco project.

CAP has an option to invest an additional US$50 million at the project's final investment decision, increasing its direct participation in REE Uno from 20% to 40%. The option is conditional and should not be treated as exercised or as financing already committed to construction.

CAP has also strengthened its position at the parent-company level. In a statement dated March 19, 2026, the Chilean group announced an investment of US$20 million as part of Aclara's US$50 million equity financing, with the intention of raising its stake in Aclara Resources from approximately 10.2% to 13%.

According to CAP, this would increase its indirect economic participation in the Penco Module from approximately 28% to 30%. The distinction matters because an equity holding in Aclara Resources is not identical to direct ownership of REE Uno.

These figures refer to different ownership levels and should not be added as if they were separate direct project shares. The additional REE Uno investment option also remains distinct from the corporate equity participation.

The updated PEA defines the scale of construction capital required but does not establish that the full amount has already been secured. Aclara's stated construction timetable remains conditional on financing.

Financing assessment

What is established: a revised capital estimate, an existing Chilean industrial partner, corporate equity financing, a conditional project participation option and a published development schedule.

What remains to be established: the final project financing structure, the amount of committed funding allocated to Penco, any additional ownership investment and the terms under which construction capital will be made available.

A preliminary valuation alone cannot replace committed construction financing.

Environmental Approval Does Not Cover the Entire Mine Life

The Biobío Regional Environmental Evaluation Commission unanimously approved the project's first-stage Environmental Impact Assessment on June 8, 2026. The corresponding Environmental Qualification Resolution (RCA) was issued on June 19 and published on June 22.

The approval followed an extended environmental assessment process involving technical submissions, public participation and consultation concerning local environmental and community impacts. The first-stage approval represents an important regulatory milestone, but it is not the last approval required for the full development plan.

The approved first stage covers the Victoria Norte, Luna and Maite extraction zones, the Neptuno deposition zone and associated processing infrastructure.

Aclara's October 2026 assessment describes the first-stage approval as supporting approximately the first six years of operations. Its summary highlights refer to approximately 5.5 years. Both descriptions refer to the same initial permitting stage, with the difference arising from rounding and the way the production period is presented.

The remaining years of the 17-year mine plan depend on a separate second-stage environmental assessment. This would address the Victoria Sur and Alexandra extraction zones, the Júpiter deposition zone and an expansion of the Neptuno deposition zone.

As of the October 2026 assessment, the second Environmental Impact Assessment had neither been prepared nor submitted. Its eventual approval cannot be assumed.

Environmental approval: two different time horizons

Approximately 5.5–6 years: production covered by the first-stage environmental assessment, depending on the company's description of the initial operating period.

17 years: mine life used in the economic assessment. Production extending beyond the initial stage depends on a separate environmental approval.

This distinction matters because the economic valuation incorporates material that is not yet covered by the existing environmental authorisation.

Administrative Challenges and Local Environmental Concerns

Environmental approval has not ended opposition to the project. Local organisations have raised questions concerning water resources, environmental effects and the adequacy of public participation. The Río Andalién catchment has also featured in the public discussion.

In September 2026, the environmental authority declared a challenge filed by the Municipality of Concepción inadmissible.

Two other challenges were admitted for review. According to BioBioChile, these included submissions associated with social and Indigenous communities in Penco and the Concepción-based Fundación Keule. The community challenge involved, among others, the Indigenous associations Koñintu Lafken Mapu and Antukuyen, together with representatives of neighbourhood organisations.

The Municipality of Penco did not join the administrative challenge procedure, according to the September reporting. The admitted challenges were referred to the Committee of Ministers for review.

A subsequent judicial challenge could follow the administrative process, depending on the decisions taken and the parties involved.

Technical Agency Reports Support the Environmental Assessment

In October 2026, five Chilean public agencies submitted technical opinions addressing issues raised during the complaint review: the Dirección General de Aguas (DGA), Comisión Chilena de Energía Nuclear (CCHEN), Corporación Nacional de Desarrollo Indígena (Conadi), Servicio Nacional de Turismo (Sernatur) and Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería (Sernageomin).

According to Diario Concepción, the reports supported the assessment's conclusions within their respective technical areas.

Agency Area reviewed Reported technical conclusion
DGA Water resources Considered the evidence sufficient to support the assessment that identified water impacts would not be significant.
CCHEN Radiological aspects Reported that the available evidence allowed radiological risks and effects on people and the environment to be ruled out.
Conadi Indigenous consultation Considered the Indigenous observations adequately addressed and the relevant measures sufficient and culturally appropriate.
Sernatur Landscape and tourism Considered the evidence sufficient to rule out significant effects on the assessed landscape and tourism attributes.
Sernageomin Physical and chemical stability Considered the technical information sufficient for the assessment, including studies and preventive measures.

Source: Diario Concepción, October 13, 2026, reporting the technical submissions made to the Environmental Evaluation Service. These are agency opinions within their respective areas of competence.

The agencies' conclusions are relevant evidence for the administrative review. However, they do not constitute a final ruling on the admitted complaints. That decision remains part of the applicable administrative process.

The available evidence therefore supports two distinct findings: the first-stage RCA has been granted and several technical agencies have supported aspects of its assessment, while admitted administrative challenges remain subject to a final decision.

From Chile to Louisiana: A Cross-Border Industrial Chain

Aclara's plans extend beyond extraction in Biobío. Its proposed industrial system connects the Penco Module in Chile and the Carina Project in Brazil with a planned rare earth separation operation in the United States.

The commercial distinction is important. A mine producing mixed rare earth carbonate does not automatically deliver the separated oxides required by manufacturers. Additional chemical separation, refining and, for some applications, conversion into metals and alloys are needed.

Stage 01 · Chile Penco Module

Planned extraction and processing of ion-adsorption clays to produce mixed rare earth carbonate.

Stage 02 · United States Project Dynamo

Planned separation of mixed carbonate into individual high-purity rare earth oxides.

Stage 03 · Industrial Technology Metals and Alloys

Technology development for converting separated oxides into metals and alloys for downstream manufacturing.

On October 13, 2026, Aclara announced the completion of basic engineering for Project Dynamo, its planned separation facility at the Port of Vinton in Louisiana.

The revised construction capital estimate is approximately US$494 million, compared with an earlier conceptual estimate of US$277 million.

The increase reflects an expanded processing scope, additional separation circuits and more developed engineering. The revised facility is designed to process material from Aclara's Chilean and Brazilian projects, including dysprosium, terbium, yttrium, gadolinium, samarium and NdPr.

Aclara targets site preparation in the first quarter of 2027 and construction completion during the second half of 2028, subject to financing and other conditions. The facility has not yet entered commercial production.

Louisiana Air Permit: A Regulatory Milestone

On September 14, 2026, Aclara announced that the Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality had approved the state air permit for Project Dynamo.

The permit, No. 0520-00550-00, authorises construction and operation under specified emission limits, control requirements and applicable conditions.

Aclara described the approval as the principal environmental permitting milestone needed to advance the Louisiana facility toward construction.

The permit materially improves the project's regulatory position, but it does not establish that financing, construction or commissioning has been completed.

EXIM's US$750 Million Letter of Interest

The Export-Import Bank of the United States issued a Letter of Interest in September 2026 indicating that it would consider financing of up to US$750 million for Project Dynamo.

The possible financing would support the planned Louisiana industrial complex, including separation, metals and alloys activities, with a potential repayment tenor of up to 15 years.

The letter is not a binding loan commitment. Any financing remains subject to due diligence, eligibility, underwriting, authorisation and definitive documentation.

It also does not represent US$750 million already committed directly to the Penco mine in Chile.

Its significance is institutional rather than financial completion: Aclara has identified a potential source of long-term financing for the downstream US portion of its strategy.

Huachipato: Technology Development in Chile

On October 7, 2026, Aclara and CAP inaugurated a demonstration plant in the Huachipato industrial district of Talcahuano.

The facility is intended to validate technology for converting rare earth oxides into metals and alloys through molten-salt electrolysis.

According to Grupo CAP, the demonstration plant can produce up to 175 kilograms of rare earth alloys per day at purity above 99.5%, under the planned operating conditions.

Its initial technological work focuses on neodymium and praseodymium. The companies also envisage further technological development involving additional rare earth materials.

The facility is a demonstration and technology-development operation, not proof of large-scale commercial magnet-material production in Chile.

Its operating results are intended to inform engineering work for a future industrial facility in the United States.

Industrial value-chain assessment

Penco's international significance depends on more than the presence of valuable minerals. The proposed system requires a functioning extraction operation, reliable shipment of mixed carbonate, commercially viable separation technology and buyers for the resulting products.

Chile contributes the mineral resource and part of the metallurgical technology development. The planned United States facilities would perform substantial downstream processing.

These are linked projects, but their investment requirements, permits and execution risks remain distinct.

Heavy Rare Earth Markets: Prices and Industrial Demand

Dysprosium and terbium occupy a relatively small part of the overall rare earth market by physical volume, but their importance is considerable in specialised permanent magnets.

The development of alternative processing capacity outside China has consequently become an industrial priority for several countries.

China retains a dominant position in rare earth processing and refining. This concentration makes the availability of separated materials at specific quality standards as important as geological resource availability.

In March 2026, S&P Global Platts assessed dysprosium oxide CIF North America at US$1,200 per kilogram and terbium oxide at US$4,900 per kilogram.

By September 30, its assessments had increased to US$3,250 and US$7,500 per kilogram, respectively.

These are dated regional market assessments, not prices necessarily obtainable by the Penco project. Commercial contracts differ by product specification, location, delivery terms and other requirements.

Fastmarkets reported in October 2026 that demand outside China was increasing ahead of tighter US defence-sector sourcing requirements expected from January 2027.

The reporting illustrates how industrial procurement policies can influence the market for particular rare earth products.

Penco's Price Assumptions Decline After 2030

Aclara's October 2026 assessment uses Argus Media forecasts based on European market prices outside China.

An important feature of the economic model is that the forecast prices for dysprosium and terbium decline substantially between 2030 and 2040.

Rare earth oxide 2030 2035 2040
Dysprosium oxide US$1,849/kg US$1,478/kg US$1,045/kg
Terbium oxide US$4,484/kg US$3,584/kg US$2,535/kg
Yttrium oxide US$250/kg US$250/kg US$250/kg
Neodymium oxide US$152/kg US$176/kg US$223/kg
Praseodymium oxide US$155/kg US$180/kg US$244/kg

Source: Aclara Resources, October 19, 2026, updated Penco PEA, Table 1. Forecast average prices in US dollars per kilogram. These are economic model assumptions, not spot prices or contracted sales prices.

The assumed decline is commercially significant. For dysprosium oxide, the forecast decreases by approximately 43% between 2030 and 2040. For terbium oxide, the decline is approximately 43% over the same period.

Even these declining forecasts may remain exposed to a pricing risk. Aclara acknowledges that realised commercial prices could be closer to domestic Chinese market levels than to the European reference prices used in its assessment.

The difference between regional price levels is therefore more than a market observation. It is directly relevant to the valuation of the Penco project and the economics of the planned international processing chain.

Market pricing distinction

Spot or assessed market prices describe conditions for a specified product, region and date.

PEA price forecasts are assumptions applied over the projected operating life of a project.

The two cannot be treated as interchangeable evidence of future revenue.

Potential premiums for non-Chinese material are commercially relevant, but are not guaranteed.

Five Conditions That Will Determine Project Execution

Penco has moved beyond an early project concept, but the evidence does not yet establish a fully financed, completely permitted and operational industrial system.

The next development phase contains several distinct requirements.

Area Evidence-based status Outstanding requirement
Project economics Updated PEA published Completed feasibility study and refined cost estimates
Construction financing Capital requirement estimated Definitive financing commitments and investment decisions
Environmental approval First-stage RCA granted Complaint resolution, sectoral permits and separate second-stage EIA
US separation Basic engineering and key air permit Financing, construction, commissioning and commercial scale-up
Market revenues Forecast-based economics Product qualification, commercial agreements and realised prices

These requirements interact. Delays to construction, changes in mineral prices or a different processing cost structure may affect the project's economics.

Conversely, successful permitting, financing and operational validation could reduce uncertainty in the development pathway.

Development Timeline: What Happens Next?

June 2026 · Completed First Environmental Approval

The Biobío Regional Environmental Evaluation Commission approved the project's first stage.

October 2026 · Completed Updated Preliminary Assessment

Aclara published revised economic assumptions and development projections.

Q1 2027 · Target Feasibility Study

Completion of the project feasibility study and possible commencement of early works, subject to financing.

H2 2027 · Target Full Construction Activities

Planned start of major construction activities, conditional on financing and required authorisations.

H2 2028 · Target Construction Completion

Aclara's current target for completion of the Penco Module. This is not a confirmed commercial production date.

Future Stage · Unscheduled Additional Environmental Approval

A separate EIA will be needed for extraction areas outside the approved first-stage scope. No approval date is established.

Source: Aclara Resources, October 19, 2026. Future dates are company targets, not contractual completion guarantees.

Business implications

Mining investment: Penco represents a potential new segment of Chile's mineral economy beyond its established copper and lithium industries. Commercial relevance depends on successful project execution.

Industrial relationships: Aclara's cooperation with CAP connects mineral development with Chilean metallurgical expertise and planned US processing capacity.

International markets: Demand for traceable rare earth materials outside China may create commercial opportunities, but buyers require consistent product quality, reliability and competitive terms.

Project finance: A preliminary project valuation, shareholder participation, a conditional equity option and a non-binding financing letter represent different forms of financial evidence. They should not be combined into an assumed fully funded investment.

Investment risk: Environmental approval for only part of the modelled mine life creates a material distinction between projected production and currently authorised operations.

Market positioning: Future sales depend on whether processed materials can meet customer specifications and command prices sufficient to support the integrated business model.

Marcus A. Volz perspective

Penco is interesting not simply because Chile may produce additional rare earth materials. The more consequential issue is how the project divides economic activities between Chile and the United States.

The mine is located in Biobío, where CAP brings an established industrial presence. Aclara and CAP are also developing metallurgical technology at Huachipato.

However, the commercial separation facility is planned for Louisiana, where much of the downstream processing would take place.

That division raises a practical economic question: how much value will remain in Chile if extraction and the production of mixed carbonate become operational, while more advanced processing and commercial industrial relationships develop primarily in the United States?

Chile could gain a new mineral export activity, investment and industrial experience. Yet the scale of those benefits will depend on actual operating capacity, the distribution of processing activities, local industrial participation and the commercial terms of the international value chain.

The October PEA strengthens the economic case for Penco, but also reveals its dependencies. The US$344 million base-case valuation assumes prices, processing costs and a 17-year production schedule, while the existing environmental approval supports only the first part of that schedule.

The distinction between project valuation and financed investment is equally important. Aclara has an industrial partner and a defined construction plan, but Penco and the Louisiana processing facilities still require substantial capital.

Market pricing adds another uncertainty. The PEA assumes declining dysprosium and terbium prices after 2030, but the project's commercial returns remain dependent on access to customers and on the price differential between Chinese and international markets.

The decisive milestone will not be another increase in estimated project value. It will be the point at which financing, permitting, construction and downstream processing capacity come together in a commercially functioning operation.

Mineral resources create the possibility of production. Commercial value depends on financing, permits, processing capacity and access to markets.

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Research boundary and definitions

Preliminary economics: The 2026 PEA is based on mineral resources and is not a completed feasibility study. Mineral resources are not equivalent to mineral reserves, and resources that are not reserves have no demonstrated economic viability.

Capital requirements: Penco's estimated US$244 million initial construction expenditure is separate from Project Dynamo's approximately US$494 million construction estimate. They refer to different assets and project scopes.

Ownership: CAP's direct participation in REE Uno is different from its equity participation in Aclara Resources. The option to increase the direct project stake is conditional on a future investment decision.

Environmental status: The first-stage RCA does not establish environmental approval for the full 17-year mine plan. Additional sectoral permits and a separate second-stage EIA remain relevant.

Administrative challenges: The five technical agency reports support specific elements of the environmental assessment but do not constitute a final ruling on the admitted complaints.

Financing: The EXIM Letter of Interest is non-binding and concerns the planned US processing complex. It is not evidence of a disbursed loan or directly financed Chilean construction.

Market pricing: Published oxide price assessments relate to specific markets, dates and delivery conditions. The Argus-based PEA forecasts are separate assumptions and not confirmed prices for Penco's future output.

Production timetable: The H2 2028 target relates to construction completion. It should not be presented as confirmed commercial production or steady-state output.

Research date: This assessment incorporates information available through October 22, 2026. Later investment, permitting, technical or commercial decisions could change the project outlook.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is the Penco rare earth project approved?

The first stage received environmental approval in June 2026. Administrative challenges remain under review, additional sectoral permits are required, and a second environmental assessment will be necessary for later extraction areas.

How much will the Penco project cost?

Aclara's October 2026 preliminary assessment estimates initial construction capital at approximately US$244 million, including contingency. The figure represents an estimated requirement, not an amount already financed and spent.

When will Penco begin production?

Aclara targets construction completion in the second half of 2028, subject to financing and other conditions. Commercial production and the subsequent ramp-up remain future milestones.

Which rare earth elements will Penco produce?

The PEA projects average annual output of 732 tonnes of rare earth oxides contained in mixed carbonate, including approximately 44 tonnes of dysprosium and six tonnes of terbium.

Is the US EXIM financing intended for the Chilean mine?

No. The non-binding Letter of Interest for up to US$750 million concerns Aclara's planned Project Dynamo processing facilities in Louisiana. It is not a direct financing commitment for Penco.

Chile Rare Earths Penco Aclara Resources Grupo CAP Dysprosium Terbium Critical Minerals Mining Investment Biobío Project Dynamo United States
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